How might climate change affect London’s trees? - Arboricultural Association

A new report, commissioned by the Greater London Authority and the Forestry Commission, assesses how well London’s public realm trees are likely to cope with projected climate conditions in 2090.

Future Climate Suitability of London’s Public Realm Trees is by Dr Andrew Hirons, a Director at Urban Plant Lab and a Senior Lecturer in Arboriculture and Urban Forestry at University Centre Myerscough, and Kevin Martin, a Research Fellow at Urban Plant Lab and the Head of Tree Collections at the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew.

London is the first city in the world to commission such a comprehensive climate suitability assessment of its public trees. What follows are extracts from the executive summary.

Key findings

If no changes are made, in total, 73% of London’s public trees may struggle to thrive or survive as the climate changes. Only 0.38% of London’s current trees are considered highly suitable for future climate conditions. 22% have moderate suitability to future climate. 62% are rated as having low suitability to future climate. 10.6% are considered vulnerable to future climate.

The authors say that the impact of this analysis will only be borne if nothing is done to adapt and address the composition of London’s urban forest. Therefore, huge opportunities exist to improve the suitability of London’s trees to future climate through positive shifts in policy and practice.

How the assessment was done

The study analysed data from over 1.1 million public trees across London. Each species was assessed for its suitability to London’s projected climate in 2090 using a composite scoring system that combined global species distribution data and plant trait analysis.