Fossil fuel CO2 emissions hit record high in 2025 - University of Exeter

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025 – reaching a record high, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.

The 2025 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.1 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year.

Decarbonisation of energy systems is progressing in many countries – but this is not enough to offset the growth in global energy demand.

With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) down to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025, total CO2 emissions are projected to be slightly lower than last year.

With the end of the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern – which causes heat and drought in many regions – the land “sink” (absorption of CO2 by natural ecosystems) recovered this year to the pre-El Niño level.

This year’s report – published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature – examines the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon sinks. It finds that 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1960 is due to climate change weakening the land and ocean sinks.

The report says the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted”.

With no sign of the urgently needed decline of global emissions, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere – and the dangerous impacts of global warming – continue to increase.

The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut and more than 90 other institutions around the world.