Extreme events combined with rising stress levels are increasing the likelihood of ecosystem collapse, say scientists
Extreme weather events such as wildfires and droughts will accelerate change in stressed systems leading to quicker tipping points of ecological decline, according to a new study published today in Nature Sustainability.
Using computer modelling, the research team looked at four ecosystems under threat to work out what factors might lead to tipping points, beyond which collapse was inevitable. In some systems, the combination of adding new extreme events on top of other ongoing stresses brought the timing of a predicted tipping point closer to the present by as much as 80%.
Ultimately, say the authors, a “perfect storm” of continuous stress from factors such as unsustainable land use, agricultural expansion and climate change, when coupled with disruptive episodes like floods and fires, will act in concert to rapidly imperil natural systems.
“Over a fifth of ecosystems worldwide are in danger of collapsing,” said Professor Simon Willcock, who co-led the study. “However, ongoing stresses and extreme events interact to accelerate rapid changes that may well be out of our control. Once these reach a tipping point, it’s too late.”
The number of extreme climate events has increased since 1980 and global warming even at 1.5°C will increase those numbers further. Scientists are also concerned about possible knock-on effects as one collapsing ecosystem impacts on neighbouring ecosystems.
“All four of the ecological systems we looked at showed the same overall outcomes,” said co-author Dr Gregory Cooper. “This has potentially profound implications for our perception of future ecological risks. While it is not currently possible to predict how climate-induced tipping points and the effects of local human actions on ecosystems will connect, our findings show the potential for each to reinforce the other. Any increasing pressure on ecosystems will be exceedingly detrimental and could have dangerous consequences”
Read the paper: Simon Willcock, Gregory S. Cooper, John Addy and John A. Dearing. Anthropocene ecosystems collapse much sooner with multiple faster and noisier drivers. Nature Sustainability (2023) DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01157-x.
Posted On: 23/06/2023
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