‘Derailment’ warning as world faces threats to its ability to act on climate change - University of Exeter

The worsening consequences of the climate crisis could fatally “derail” climate action, researchers have warned.

With global warming breaching 1.5°C – and Earth system tipping points, such as the widespread dieback of warm-water coral reefs, now being reached – the consequences of climate change are guaranteed to escalate.

The new report – by the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI), the University of Exeter, University College London’s Climate Action Unit, and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) – says this could create a vicious cycle in which dealing with climate impacts gets in the way of action to tackle the underlying problem.

This could keep the world off a trajectory for emissions reductions that keeps temperatures below the 2°C target set in Paris in 2015.

The researchers say this “derailment risk” is dangerously overlooked.

Their work is the culmination of a two-year project that engaged hundreds of science and policy experts and officials around the world to consider how to “navigate the new climate reality”.

Comparing the world’s fight against climate change to sailors facing a deadly storm, lead author Laurie Laybourn, from SCRI and Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said: “Until now, the job has been to persuade the crew that the storm is coming, to change course, and to tackle the vested interests who don’t want to do this. We have taken some climate action – the bearing has changed, with huge progress made in clean technology – but now we are entering the figurative and literal ‘storm’ of 1.5°C overshoot. At this point, navigating becomes harder – our ability to act is pulled in different directions by worsening climate impacts and their chaotic consequences. These could distract us from rapid decarbonisation, keeping us on a trajectory to global disaster. So, we need a strategy to get focussed, stay focussed, and navigate to safety.”